Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007641 0.008613 0.009662 0.010881 0.012258 0.013767 0.015545
2026-01-11 0.006198 0.007555 0.009142 0.011137 0.013581 0.016482 0.020194
2026-01-18 0.005239 0.006741 0.008595 0.011058 0.014250 0.018257 0.023686
2026-01-25 0.004590 0.006172 0.008213 0.011049 0.014897 0.019956 0.027141
2026-02-01 0.004033 0.005632 0.007776 0.010871 0.015244 0.021225 0.030076
2026-02-08 0.003664 0.005293 0.007554 0.010934 0.015882 0.022899 0.033674
2026-02-15 0.003314 0.004937 0.007260 0.010844 0.016266 0.024211 0.036832
2026-02-22 0.003104 0.004759 0.007197 0.011072 0.017115 0.026248 0.041224
2026-03-01 0.002779 0.004372 0.006784 0.010721 0.017038 0.026856 0.043433
2026-03-08 0.002530 0.004080 0.006486 0.010516 0.017155 0.027752 0.046149
2026-03-15 0.002296 0.003790 0.006164 0.010237 0.017116 0.028380 0.048452
2026-03-22 0.002214 0.003739 0.006218 0.010575 0.018117 0.030777 0.053930
2026-03-29 0.002105 0.003636 0.006183 0.010765 0.018894 0.032884 0.059140
2026-04-05 0.002015 0.003557 0.006182 0.011014 0.019796 0.035279 0.065084
2026-04-12 0.001878 0.003386 0.006007 0.010936 0.020100 0.036632 0.069231
2026-04-19 0.001766 0.003248 0.005877 0.010927 0.020523 0.038224 0.073952
2026-04-26 0.001640 0.003074 0.005668 0.010752 0.020617 0.039205 0.077570
2026-05-03 0.001558 0.002976 0.005589 0.010813 0.021163 0.041079 0.083100
2026-05-10 0.001463 0.002845 0.005439 0.010725 0.021405 0.042376 0.087572
2026-05-17 0.001414 0.002800 0.005449 0.010950 0.022288 0.045002 0.095008
2026-05-24 0.001302 0.002621 0.005185 0.010603 0.021977 0.045192 0.097315
2026-05-31 0.001216 0.002487 0.004999 0.010401 0.021945 0.045946 0.100889
2026-06-07 0.001128 0.002344 0.004786 0.010125 0.021734 0.046303 0.103614